Danish Defence Intelligence Service: Russia Ready for Large-Scale War in 5 Years

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) has released an updated assessment of the threat posed by Russia to Denmark and the Kingdom of Denmark. The report paints a grim picture of a rapidly escalating security situation, with Russia engaging in massive military buildup and preparing for a potential conflict with NATO.

Russian Military Buildup at Full Speed

Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has embarked on an extensive military buildup and reform of its armed forces. According to FE, this process has intensified throughout 2024, with Russia receiving significant support from allies such as China, North Korea, and Iran. This development has enabled Russia to restore its military capabilities on an unprecedented scale.

Preparations for Conflict with NATO

FE assesses that Russia views itself as being in direct confrontation with the West. Although the Kremlin has not yet decided to initiate a war against NATO, Russia is actively building its capacity to do so.

“At present, Russia wants to avoid actions that could trigger NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense, but this could change if the balance of power shifts in Russia’s favor,” FE warns in the report.

According to the assessment, within the next six months, Russia could conduct a localized war against a neighboring country. Within two years, the country will be capable of posing a serious threat to NATO member states, particularly in the Baltic region. And within five years, Russia could potentially have the capacity to wage a large-scale war in Europe—especially if the United States does not directly engage in the conflict.

Increased Tensions in the Arctic

Global tensions between Russia, China, and the United States have also extended to the Arctic, where Russia is increasingly displaying aggressive behavior. FE highlights that Russia prioritizes the region strategically and is conducting a military buildup that could threaten stability in the area.

What Does This Mean for Denmark and the Kingdom of Denmark?

Although there is no immediate threat of a Russian military attack on Denmark, FE assesses that the situation could change as Russia continues its military expansion and confrontational foreign policy. Greenland and the Faroe Islands are primarily viewed within a North American strategic context, meaning that Russia would not initially consider these areas part of a European conflict.

However, FE’s report emphasizes that Denmark and its allies must acknowledge a security reality in which Russia could become a genuine military threat in the long term. This means that both NATO and the Danish armed forces must prepare for a potentially more unstable future.

The Need for Increased Vigilance

The latest assessment from the Danish Defence Intelligence Service sends a clear message: Russia is rearming, and the threat level against the West is rising. Whether this will lead to direct conflict with NATO depends on the continued developments in Ukraine and the West’s ability to maintain military deterrence.

FE calls for continued vigilance and an enhancement of Denmark’s defense capabilities in response to the increasing geopolitical tensions.